Macase industrial control sharing: 2020 server chassis future development speculation, is expected to enter the international server market

 

(1) Development status

 

Global server sales and revenue continue to decline

 

Market research firm IDC2018 data shows that due to the weak global economic environment and the integration of customers' servers, global server products and business sales declined in the first four to four consecutive quarters, and revenues also declined. Overall, the global server market spending level in 2013 was extremely low and the high-end market had serious flaws.

 

Intensified competition among manufacturers, the top three changes

 

From the manufacturer's format, IDC data shows that HP won the first place in the global server market revenue share in the first, third and fourth quarters, but IBM won the second quarter. Dell is always in third place. In terms of shipments, among the top five vendors, only Dell and Cisco shipments are growing, and other vendors are negative.

 

(II) Development characteristics

 

The rise of cloud services, the demand for traditional server market has shrunk

 

According to Dell Oro's data, in 2013, 14% of the world's servers were shipped in cloud applications, and the number of general enterprise procurement servers continued to decrease. At present, the demand for traditional server market, which is dominated by rack and blade servers, continues to shrink. The challenges faced by traditional server vendors such as IBM, Hewlett-Packard and Dell are increasing.

 

Virtualization technology and applications have penetrated into the server space

 

In the context of server customer integration, virtualization technology brings new development opportunities to the server market, mainly reflected in the fact that virtualization technology can improve the utilization of commercial high-end servers. At present, the global high-end server market is mainly occupied by RISC architecture products, but with the deepening of open system applications, the demand for high-end servers by ordinary users is increasing.

 

Second, the development of China's server market

 

(1) Development status

 

The overall share of local Chinese manufacturers has increased substantially

 

In 2018, the size of China's x86 server market was RMB 21.7 billion. In the first half of 2013, under the background of the application of localization trend, the overall share of local manufacturers in China has increased substantially. The domestic market dominated by Inspur, Huawei and Lenovo has accounted for more than 40%. Among them, the share of Lenovo x86 server shipments reached 12.2% in the second quarter, which is the first manufacturer of domestic x86 servers. At the same time, in China's overall server market, domestic companies such as Inspur and Shuguang are gradually catching up with foreign giants.

 

Cloud computing is deep, 4 and 8 server requirements are speeding up

 

In 2018, China's cloud computing applications continued to deepen, and the demand for big data processing in various industries continued to expand. This made users' demand for 4-channel and 8-way servers with strong functions and high availability significantly accelerated.

 

(II) Development characteristics

 

E-commerce, national economy and people's livelihood and other industries continue to promote the role of the server

 

In 2018, China's server market as a whole developed well in the country's rapid macroeconomic development, e-government and other government informatization construction entered the fast lane, SMEs entered the market information era and 3G, 4G and other rapid development. . The Internet and government utilities have become the two market segments with the largest server growth and growth rate respectively.

 

Rapid changes in user demand, customized services into a new model of the server market

 

As early as a decade ago, domestic server manufacturers have launched server products with personalized functions for different users, so that the personalized functional server market has grown rapidly and become the most dynamic and innovative market in the server market. Nowadays, the development of the server market is becoming more and more irregular, and the needs of users are changing faster and more diverse. Therefore, a new application mode, large-scale popularization, has emerged in the domestic market and has gradually become a new trend in the development of the server industry in the country.

 

Third, the analysis of China's server market structure

 

(1) Brand structure

 

1. Annual brand structure

 

The top three control the market, other brands have limited development space

 

ZDC statistics show that in the Chinese server market in 2013, IBM, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard still dominated the market, ranking top three, with a cumulative proportion of more than 75%. The upside of other brands is relatively limited, and the gap between them is not much different. It is worth noting that Lenovo's server market share is expected to gain a significant boost after it acquired IBM's low-end server business for $2.3 billion on January 26, 2014.

 

The brand format has changed greatly, and the three brands have been listed on the list.

 

Compared with 2018, in the 2019 server market brand attention format, in addition to the stable position of the top three, other brand rankings have changed. Lenovo and Inspur ranked slightly lower. Dawning and Lenovo ThinkServer ranked higher. Zheng Rui, Yi Shikong, and strong oxygen are on the list. Overall, the server market brand format has changed greatly.

 

2, quarterly brand structure

 

Traditional international brands and local leading brands have obvious advantages

 

From the quarterly perspective, Q1-Q4 traditional international brands IBM, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard maintained a strong leading edge, and local leading brands tightly controlled the market share of the second camp. The competition in the third camp was the fiercest, and the time-space, strong oxygen and ASUS brands were not stable.

 

(ii) Product structure

 

1, hot products

 

IBM products have obvious advantages, and six products are on the list.

 

From the product point of view, in the server market in 2018, IBM System x3650 M4 (7915I51) became the most popular product with 8.1% attention. In addition, IBM has five models on the list, becoming the most listed brand, IBM products can be seen. In addition to IBM, Dell and Lenovo have two models on the list. Among them, the Dell PowerEdge 12G R720 (Xeon E5-2609) was runner-up.

 

Rack server products dominate the list

 

From the main parameters, among the ten server products that are most concerned by users, eight are rack-mounted server products, and the tower products are on the list. In terms of product structure, 2U products dominate the market. Products that use quad-core CPU cores also dominate.

 

Product update is slow, the top three users focus on concentration

 

Overall, because the server product update speed is relatively slow, the user attention of the top three products is relatively concentrated and not chaotic. However, from the perspective of market development environment, innovation is also one of the important tasks facing server vendors, in order to achieve a long-term foothold in the server market.

 

2, product type structure

 

Rack-mounted servers dominate the mainstream

 

From the point of view of the type, in the current Chinese server market, a wide range of rack-mounted servers occupy the absolute mainstream of user attention, and get a 74.7% attention ratio. Secondly, the tower server with low cost and used for small and medium-sized enterprises has a concern of 23.6%. Because the tower server is relatively large and takes up a lot of space, its market space is rising slowly. Blade servers used in special industries such as precision instruments have the lowest level of attention, at 1.7%.

 

3, product structure

 

The product structure is 2U server is the most favored

 

From the perspective of product structure, the 2U-out products of the server are most favored by the market. These products are compact, easy to deploy, and easy to use, with a focus on over 40%. Followed by 4U products, gaining 20% ​​attention. 1U and 5U products are all about 10%.

 

(iii) Price structure

 

1. Price interval structure

 

10,000-30,000 yuan products get over 50% attention

 

From the price segment, users of server products priced between 10,000 and 30,000 are the most concerned, exceeding 50%. Followed by products below 10,000 yuan, gaining about 20% attention. The attention of 30,000-50,000 yuan and products above 50,000 yuan was 10.1% and 15.2% respectively.

 

Fourth, the analysis of mainstream manufacturers in the Chinese server market

 

(1) Comparison of brand structure

 

IBM and Dell's attention is on the decline

 

Comparing the trend of attention of the five mainstream brands, IBM and the runner-up Dell, which are far ahead of the competition, are experiencing this trend. The competition situation is very tight. Q3, Q4, IBM's attention has been declining for two consecutive quarters. Dell continued to rise in Q3 and Q4, and continued to narrow the gap with IBM.

 

The focus of HP, Lenovo ThinkServer and Lenovo brands is small in Q1, but in the following three quarters, the gap between the three brands is gradually widening.

 

(II) Comparison of product structure

 

1. Number of products sold on the market

 

IBM, Dell products have a big advantage

 

Comparing the number of products sold by five mainstream brands, IBM, Dell and Hewlett-Packard, which have focused on users, have the upper hand in terms of product quantity. Among them, IBM and Dell are selling more than 130 products, and the number is superior. The number of products sold by Lenovo ThinkServer and Lenovo is relatively small. It can be seen that a perfect product layout and a large number of products is a hub for a brand to gain market voice.

 

2, single product attention rate

 

IBM brand market is relatively competitive

 

From the point of view of single product attention, IBM is the highest among the top five mainstream server brands, indicating that its products are the most competitive in the market. Followed by Dell. Lenovo ThinkServer ranked third. HP and Lenovo's product competitiveness is basically commensurate, the latter slightly higher.

 

V. Future server market development trend speculation

 

(1) Influencing factors

 

1. Favorable factors

 

Informatization construction and 4G development stimulate demand for server growth

 

Under the wave of informatization construction and mobile Internet, and 2014 will be China's 4G first year, the government and the Internet and telecom operators will increase their efforts in information construction. This is definitely a good move for the Chinese server market. At the same time, with the booming of e-commerce, the use and mining of big data resources has become one of the reasons for the expansion of server demand.

 

Virtualization technology brings opportunities for high-end servers

 

With the rapid development of IT technology, the scale of applications under the basic traditional IT architecture model needs more and more servers to support the development of the business. Therefore, the server resource utilization rate is low, the emergency response time is slow, and the operation and maintenance cost is increased. Higher topics.

 

The maturity of virtual technology provides an effective solution for IT users with more servers or more applications. It can not only reduce TCO, operation and maintenance costs, facilitate management, but also reduce the number of servers with corresponding growth in application scale. At the same time, security can be improved. It can be said that virtualization technology has brought new opportunities for the development of the high-end server market.

 

2. Unfavorable factors

 

The rise of cloud services, the demand for traditional server market has shrunk

 

Public cloud and virtualization will bring a big change to the server market in 2014. More and more users will no longer adopt the traditional server vendor solution, especially the introduction of high-density servers and micro-servers. Start to provide customized solutions for users. Traditional server market demand will face challenges.

 

The mainframe reproduces the trend of ZTE, impacting the server market

 

Nowadays, server usage in some industries is becoming more and more complicated. Usually, several servers must work at the same time to complete a detailed task. This allows the previously unpopular mainframe to gain development opportunities, large-scale performance to complete the task of multiple servers together, and its use of the cost will not continue to rise.

 

(ii) Trend guessing

 

The server focuses on modular promotion

 

Modern applications make the server vision change. The old single server is trying to find a way to reduce it, and the trend in the coming year will focus on modular promotion, so server software must become faster and more adaptable.

 

High-density servers ushered in growth

 

In the future, in addition to the traditional rack-mount and data central servers, high-density servers featuring unique design and application will usher in a certain demand growth in the cloud computing market. In the most economical way, this type of product uses a blade-like chassis design structure that can be effectively connected to storage and network devices.

 

Lenovo is expected to rank among the top three in the international market

 

In terms of vendor competition format, Lenovo is expanding its software partnership to break into the server market dominated by HP, IBM and Dell. On January 26, 2014, Lenovo announced the acquisition of IBM's low-end server business for US$2.3 billion, which is extremely beneficial to Lenovo's expansion in the global market.

 

IDC believes that mergers and acquisitions have a significant impact on the competitive format of the Chinese server market. Lenovo will become the leader in the Chinese X86 server market and is expected to be among the top three in the international server market.